November 10, 2008
Why Prop. 8 confounded pre-election pollsters
by Mark DiCamillo
San Francisco Chronicle
Why did it appear that California's Proposition 8, which banned same-sex marriage, seemed to be going down to defeat and yet was approved by voters?
To answer this question, we must first examine the trend of voter preferences on Prop. 8 as reported by The Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), the two leading polling organizations in California. Field and PPIC conducted six separate samplings on Prop. 8 between July and late October. In each, Prop. 8 was trailing, albeit by declining margins as election day approached.
Some have posited that one reason for the disparity between the run-up to election day and the final outcome is that some survey respondents were lying to the pollsters. In their view, some portion of those who voted yes felt compelled during their pre-election interview to disguise their support for the initiative. It is a theory without any supporting evidence.
There is a far more compelling explanation for the variance that is corroborated by the evidence.
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